Valuations in the new era

In 1934, the great investment theorist Benjamin Graham wrote of the pre-1929 stock bubble:

Instead of judging the market price by established standards of value, the new era based its standards of value upon the market price. Hence, all upper limits disappeared, not only upon the price at which a stock could sell, but even upon the price at which it would deserve to sell. This fantastic reasoning actually led to the purchase for investment at $100 per share of common stocks earning $2.50 per share. The identical reasoning would support the purchase of these same shares at $200, at $1,000, or at any conceivable price.

(Source: Four Pillars of Investing – Lessons for building a winning portfolio by William Bernstein)

William Bernstein writes further in “Four Pillars of Investing”, “Even the most casual investor will see the parallels of Graham’s world with the recent tech/Internet bubble. Graham’s $100 stock sold at 40 times its $2.50 earnings. At the height of the 2000 bubble, most of the big-name tech favorites, like Cisco, EMC and Yahoo! Sold at much more than 100 times earnings. And, of course, almost all of the dot-coms went bankrupt without ever having had a cent of earnings.

To see a similar pattern across time periods, across geographies and across asset categories, read the chapter on “Valuation” in the book “Riding The Roller Coaster – Lessons from financial market cycles we repeatedly forget”. There were cases of such ridiculous valuations in real estate stocks in India in 2007-08, real estate prices in Japan in the 1980s, tulip bulbs in Amsterdam, technology companies in the 1999-2000 – such events have occurred at an amazingly high frequency.

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Market crash or reputation crash?

If you want to see what market booms and busts can do to one’s reputation, Professor Irving Fisher’s statement in October 1929 would be a most appropriate example

Read more in the book “Riding The Roller Coaster – Lessons from financial market cycles we repeatedly forget”

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