The folly of forecasting, a volte-face, summersault – you may use any adjective to describe this, but those who followed are hurt real bad. And still, the more things become unpredictable, the more we want to know the future. So long as we expect to know the future in advance, the forecasters are in the game. We keep feeding them by expecting them to predict. They only supply something that a large number of people demand.
Read this nice blog post on a recent case of a summersault just months before the Rio Olympics:
Incidentally, we had done a similar post on December 22, 2015. A sheer coincidence that not just the volte-face, but the surname too is quite similar.
Read the book “Riding The Roller Coaster – Lessons from financial market cycles we repeatedly forget” to know more about the folly of forecasting.
#RidingTheRollerCoaster – 179