There are many small stories in the epic Mahabharata. In one such story, a beggar comes to the Pandavas asking for some help. They are in the midst of a discussion, and Yudhisthira, the elder brother, asks the person to come the next day. Hearing this, his younger sibling, Bheema reminds Yudhisthira of the audacity of assuming that he would be alive tomorrow. This story highlights the importance of understanding uncertainty associated with the future.
However, we have always wanted to know the future.
Often, the experts get swayed by the same emotions and get their forecasts wrong.
To read more “On Forecasting and Expertise”, see the book “Riding The Roller Coaster – Lessons from financial market cycles we repeatedly forget”
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